Skeptical Science New Research Highlights (Week #11, 2025)

Unprecedented Weather: Bracing for the Unexpected

From surprise heatwaves to intensified atmospheric rivers, extreme weather events are becoming increasingly common. Kelder et al. in Nature Communications offer a crucial overview of methods to anticipate these unprecedented hazards, emphasizing proactive disaster management and transformative adaptation for long-term resilience. Rather than simply reacting, we must take responsibility for building a future prepared for the unexpected.

Masukwedza et al., writing in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, focus on the Southeast United States, using weather simulations to characterize current extreme weather risks. They introduce the concept of "sitting ducks"—locations experiencing a rapid increase in extreme events coupled with low return periods for even the most extreme recent events—highlighting the potential for unforeseen disasters. Their research proposes a framework using large ensembles for enhanced disaster preparedness simulations, urging us to "imagine the unprecedented."

On the West Coast, Higgins et al. in Geophysical Research Letters explore the intensifying threat of atmospheric rivers, responsible for the majority of precipitation extremes in the region. Using large-ensemble climate models, their findings reveal substantial changes to these extreme events even under mild warming scenarios, with disproportionate impacts during weather patterns conducive to atmospheric river activity.

Climate Change Impacts: From Soybeans to Space

Climate change's effects extend far beyond extreme weather. Hamed et al., publishing in Communications Earth & Environment, attribute one-third of the 2012 global soybean production failure to anthropogenic climate change, predicting a further exacerbation of these deficits with future warming. Their findings underscore the need for urgent adaptation in agriculture.

Even the realm of space isn't immune. Parker et al. in Nature Sustainability reveal how greenhouse gas emissions, causing thermospheric cooling and contraction, reduce atmospheric density in low Earth orbit. This extended lifespan of space debris poses a growing collision hazard to satellites, highlighting the unexpected consequences of our actions and the need for sustainable space operations.

Closer to home, Sepúlveda & Mosqueda in Earth's Future examine how climate-driven sea level rise will exacerbate tsunami hazards in Southern California. Their research shows a significant increase in "maximum considered tsunami" elevations due to rising sea levels, emphasizing the long-term consequences of climate change for coastal communities.

The Anthropocene: Acknowledging Our Impact

While the official designation of the Anthropocene epoch remains debated, McCarthy et al. in AGU Advances argue that formally recognizing this new geological era is crucial. They emphasize that this recognition acknowledges the irreversible planetary changes caused by human activity, aligning Earth Sciences with the undeniable reality of our impact.

Further Research: A Broad Spectrum

This week's research also covers a wide array of topics, including:

• The disproportionate impacts of heatwaves on women and girls in South Sudan (World Weather Attribution)
• The growing threat of catastrophic flooding in rural America (The Pacific Institute)
• The complexities of building electrification as a climate solution (Switchbox & The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy)
• The role of rooftop solar in energy affordability (The California Solar & Storage Association)

Over 170 articles from 66 journals were reviewed, highlighting the breadth and depth of ongoing climate research. Visit Skeptical Science for a complete list and access links.

Accessing Research: Breaking Down Barriers

Frustrated by paywalls? Consider using the Unpaywall browser extension. It's a free and effective tool that helps identify freely accessible articles, providing a valuable resource for those seeking to engage with the latest research.